Pending Home Sales Hit a Record Low, While Nassau Stays One of Five Large Seller’s Markets, Redfin Says

Fewer Americans are signing contracts on homes than at any point in Redfin’s records. In a report released Thursday, the brokerage said U.S. pending home sales fell to 281,749 in the four weeks ending October 18, down 1.9% from the prior four-week period and 14.4% from a year earlier. Redfin’s weekly data series goes back to 2021, and this is its lowest reading.

The figures come from a company report distributed through PR Newswire, so they are Redfin’s own estimates rather than independent reporting. Even so, they line up with other recent data: RealEstateNews.com, summarizing the week, noted that Mortgage Bankers Association purchase applications were running 18% below last year and that Freddie Mac’s 30-year average, while easing to 7.32%, is still far above where it was a year ago.

The national picture

Here are the key numbers from Redfin’s four-week snapshot:

• New listings: 354,412, down 1.4% from the prior period and 2.7% from a year ago. The weekly drop was the largest in three months.
• Active listings: about 1.51 million, up 2.1% year over year.
• Median sale price: $390,614, up just 0.2% from last year. The median asking price was $399,629, up 0.9%.
• Typical monthly payment: $2,796 at a 7.4% mortgage rate, up 10.4% year over year and the second-highest level in Redfin’s records.
• Months of supply: 4.4, up from 4. Redfin treats 4 to 5 months as balanced.
• Price cuts: 21.7% of listings had a price drop, while 23.3% of homes sold above list price.

Put simply, prices are roughly flat nationally, but financing costs have pushed monthly payments up sharply. That gap is what is keeping many would-be buyers on the sidelines. Redfin said pending sales fell year over year in all 50 of the most populous U.S. metro areas for a second straight week, with the steepest drops in Seattle, San Diego, Atlanta, Denver and Las Vegas.

Where Long Island fits

A separate Redfin analysis, published October 14 and covering September, adds local context. Nationally, Redfin estimated that sellers outnumbered buyers by about 63%, the widest gap in its records dating to 2013. Of the 50 most populous metro areas, Redfin classified 41 as buyer’s markets, four as balanced and only five as seller’s markets.

Redfin’s Nassau County, New York market was one of those five. By its estimate, sellers there trailed buyers by 28.6%, the biggest shortfall of any large market it tracked. The other seller’s markets were Montgomery County, Pennsylvania; Newark, New Jersey; Milwaukee; and San Francisco. Redfin also found that across seller’s markets, sale prices rose an average of 6.4% year over year in August, compared with about 1% in buyer’s markets.

A word of caution on the method. Redfin counts sellers using active MLS listings and estimates buyers from touring and pending-sale data, with seasonal adjustment and later revisions. These are modeled numbers, and the report does not spell out the exact boundaries of its Nassau County market area. Conditions also differ from town to town and even block to block, so a regional label is a starting point, not a verdict on any particular home.

Why it matters before next week’s Fed meeting

The Federal Reserve meets October 27 and 28. According to RealEstateNews.com, futures markets priced roughly a 95% chance of no change in the Fed’s benchmark rate after September’s quarter-point increase, with better-than-even odds of another hike in December. The Fed does not set mortgage rates directly, but its outlook moves Treasury yields, and mortgage rates tend to follow those yields.

Realtor.com senior economist Anthony Smith summed up the season bluntly in that coverage, saying that “the damage to the fall housing market is already done.” In other words, even a modest dip in rates now is unlikely to revive the fall market, though it could matter for buyers and sellers planning for winter and early spring.

Practical takeaways

• Buyers: Focus on the monthly payment, not just the price. At rates in the low-to-mid 7% range, small changes in rate or loan size can move the payment noticeably. Getting a written loan estimate from more than one lender is a sensible first step.
• Sellers: Regional data suggests Nassau has held up better than most large markets, but listings that are priced above recent comparable sales can still sit. Recent local sales and days on market for similar homes are the most useful guide.
• Everyone: National reports describe broad trends. Your own timeline, finances and the specific property matter more than any monthly headline.
• Watch the calendar: The Fed decision on October 28 and the next weekly mortgage rate survey will show whether this week’s small rate dip holds.

The bottom line: nationally, demand is the weakest Redfin has measured, while Long Island, by Redfin’s reckoning, remains one of the few large markets where buyers still outnumber sellers. Both things can be true at once, and both are worth keeping in mind for anyone planning a move in the months ahead.

This article is general market information, not legal, tax, financial or real estate advice. Please consult a licensed real estate professional, attorney or mortgage professional about your own situation.

Sources

• Redfin (company statement via PR Newswire, republished by Yahoo Finance), “Redfin Reports U.S. Pending Home Sales Sink to a New Low,” Oct. 22, 2026: finance.yahoo.com
• Redfin, “Home Sellers Now Outnumber Buyers By 63%,” Oct. 14, 2026: redfin.com
• RealEstateNews.com, “Rates drop, but damage to housing’s fall season ‘already done’,” Oct. 22, 2026: realestatenews.com
• Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, Oct. 22, 2026: freddiemac.com